Tracing intuitive judgement of experts in fish stock assessment data

Scientific advice is increasingly used to inform policy. Often, experts are asked give when stakes high, time pressure severe and uncertainty looms. In such environments, decisions may be guided by instincts priors, rather than reason. Yet, the extent of these intuitive judgements unknown. We use a database fish stock assessments detect quantify systematic tendency put too much weight on previous information, known as anchoring, in scientific advice. By exploiting exogenous variation procedures possibilities vary model assumptions, we find consistent evidence for judgement. that anchoring strongest if choices flexible crisis, potentially increasing stakes. providing biased towards results, more robust but also false sense security drastic changes go undetected.