Ties That Bias in International Conflict: A Spatial Approach to Dyadic Dependence from Alliance Ties and Inbetweenness

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Much of international behavior is linked spatially and temporally. Yet, analyses interstate interactions generally either assume independence among units or resort to technical solutions dependence that “throw away” relevant information. We detail a more informative satisfying approach modeling spatial from extra-dyadic linkages in alliance ties geographical proximity as specific pathways conflict contagion. Beyond deterrence, the purpose alliances draw other parties into dyadic contests, but most existing research on onset only considers within an individual dyad external intervention same dispute. develop new measures third- fourth-party ties, demonstrating direct indirect effects onset. Similarly, ongoing contests can spread geographically, dyads some locations are much at risk for than others. provide theory geographic “inbetweenness” show involving likely see dispute onset, even accounting purely factors. intrinsic interest impacts position conflict, our be applied broadly ties.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: International Studies Quarterly

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['0020-8833', '1468-2478']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqab082