The sure-thing principle and the comonotonic sure-thing principle: An axiomatic analysis
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Conditioning and the Sure-Thing Principle
This paper undertakes a careful examination of the concept of conditional probability and its use. The ideas are then applied to resolve a conceptual puzzle related to Savage’s “Sure-Thing Principle.”
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We study a version of Harsanyi’s theorem (Harsanyi, 1955) in a framework involving uncertainty. Without assuming the sure-thing principle but sticking to consequentialism, we obtain that a Paretian social aggregation should be affine and that all decision makers must use additively separable preferences that resembles expected utilities. Whenever preferences are state independent, we find that ...
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Savage (1954) introduced the sure-thing principle in terms of the dependence of decisions on knowledge, but gave up on formalizing it in epistemic terms for lack of a formal definition of knowledge. Using a standard model of knowledge, the partition model, we examine the sure-thing principle, presenting two ways to capture it. One is in terms of knowledge operators, which we call the principle ...
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Savage (1954) introduced the sure-thing principle in terms of the dependence of decisions on knowledge, but gave up on formalizing it in epistemic terms for lack of a formal definition of knowledge. Using simple models of knowledge, we examine the sure-thing principle, presenting two ways to capture it. One is in terms of the union of future events, for which we reserve the original name—the su...
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The basic analytical concepts, tools and results of the classical expected utility/subjective probability model of risk preferences and beliefs under subjective uncertainty can be extended to general “event-smooth” preferences over subjective acts that do not necessarily satisfy either of the key behavioral assumptions of the classical model, namely the Sure-Thing Principle or the Hypothesis of...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Mathematical Economics
سال: 1996
ISSN: 0304-4068
DOI: 10.1016/0304-4068(95)00721-0