The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Estimating the Output Gap in Real Time
I propose a novel method of estimating the potential level of U.S. GDP in real time. The proposed wage-based measure of economic potential remains virtually unchanged when new data are released. The distance between current and potential output – the output gap – satisfies Okun’s law and outperforms many other measures of slack in forecasting inflation. Thus, I provide a robust statistical tool...
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Recent work has found that, without the benefit of hindsight, it can prove difficult for policy-makers to pin down accurately the current position of the output gap; real-time estimates are unreliable. However, attention primarily has focused on output gap point estimates alone. But point forecasts are better seen as the central points of ranges of uncertainty; therefore some revision to real-t...
متن کاملShould we be surprised by the unreliability of real-time output gap estimates? Density estimates for the Eurozone
Output gap estimates calculated in real-time are known to be often unreliable. Recent work has found that, without the benefit of hindsight, it can prove difficult for policy-makers to pin down accurately the current position of the output gap. However, attention primarily has focussed on output gap point estimates alone. This paper considers output gap estimates and their uncertainty more gene...
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Industrial deployment of academic real-time techniques still struggles to gain momentum due to the non-familiarity of the industry with schedulability analysis, as well as the lack of appropriate commercial tools. More over, it is imperative that academia realises the extent of pessimism in the proposed techniques, which often makes them less attractive to systems developers. The possible trade...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 1999
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.171795