The logic of regulatory impact assessment: From evidence to evidential reasoning

Agencies involved in generating regulatory policies promote evidence-based impact assessments (RIAs) to improve the predictability of regulation and develop informed policy. Here, we analyze epistemic foundations RIAs. We frame RIA as reasoning that connects various types knowledge inferences about future. Drawing on Stephen Toulmin's model argumentation, situate deductive inductive steps within a schema call argument. This approach helps us identify inherent uncertainties RIAs, their location different reasoning. illustrate theoretical section with two recent legislative proposals produced by European Commission. argue concept “evidence-based assessment” is misleading should be based notion “regulatory assessment evidential reasoning,” which better recognizes its processual argumentative nature.