The Influence of Uniform Flow on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change

Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity.

Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although gr...

Quantifying Environmental Control on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change

Composite analysis is used to examine environmental and climatology and persistence characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing different intensity changes in the western North Pacific (WPAC) and North Atlantic (ATL) ocean basins. Using the cumulative distribution functions of 24-h intensity changes from the 2003–08 best-track data, four intensity change bins are defined: rapidly inte...

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change before U.S. Gulf Coast Landfall

Tropical cyclone intensity change remains a forecasting challenge with important implications for such vulnerable areas as the U.S. coast along the Gulf of Mexico. Analysis of 1979–2008 Gulf tropical cyclones during their final two days before U.S. landfall identifies patterns of behavior that are of interest to operational forecasters and researchers. Tropical storms and depressions strengthen...

Fundamental Studies In Tropical Cyclone Structure & Intensity Change

Focusing on dynamical and thermodynamical processes germane to the hurricane’s core region, this research aims to obtain a more complete understanding of key atmospheric processes governing hurricane structure and intensity. This year (beginning May 2002) we have continued our work on the moist dynamics of the hurricane eye/eyewall and the dry dynamics of a hurricane-like vortex in vertical she...

Numerical Study on the Effect of the Ocean on Tropical-Cyclone Intensity and Structural Change