The Influence of OPEC+ on Oil Prices: A Quantitative Assessment

Between January 2017 and March 2020 a coalition of oil producers led by OPEC Russia (known as OPEC+) cut production in an attempt to raise the price crude oil. In corona virus shock collapse this coalition, members did not agree on keeping market tight face large negative demand shock. Yet, was OPEC+ actually effective sustaining oil? early when strategy place, inventories fell substantially reached peak around 80 USD per barrel, from minimum 30 2016. This suggests that had significant impact global market. what extent prices reflect cuts rather than other factors, like swings for How would have evolved supply? paper provides answer these questions through counterfactual analysis based two structural models We find overall quite limited, owing deviations assigned quotas. On average, without cuts, been 6 percent (4 USD) lower. JEL Classification: Q43, C53