The House Price-Vacancy Curve

Understanding House-Price Dynamics

*The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia or the Federal Reserve System. or most homeowners, housing is the single most important component of their nonpension wealth. Therefore, a change in house prices greatly affects the total wealth of many households. Furthermore, movements in house prices can af...

House Price Index Methodologies

Index Revision, House Price Risk, and the Market for House Price Derivatives

It is widely recognized that options and futures markets for housing can reduce and manage the risks inherent in consumers’ large investments in housing equity. The integrity of such markets depends, however, upon the use of transparent and replicable benchmarks for house prices and settlement values. In the USA, a series of state and metropolitan indexes have been produced by a government agen...

House Price Prediction Using LSTM

In this paper, we use the house price data ranging from January 2004 to October 2016 to predict the average house price of November and December in 2016 for each district in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. We apply Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model to generate the baseline while LSTM networks to build prediction model. These algorithms are compared in terms of Mean Squar...

Local Quantile House Price Indices

Locally weighted quantile regressions allow the coefficients of hedonic house price functions to vary over space. Using data on all house sales in Cook County, Illinois, for 20002011, I show how the full distribution of appreciation rates changed over time in small geographic areas. The estimates reveal significant spatial variation in appreciation rates both geographically and across the distr...