The geography of megatrends affecting European agriculture

A range of intensifying pressures is making the future European agriculture dynamic and contested. Insights into these are needed to inform debates about sector. In this study, we use a foresight approach identify, quantify map megatrends. Megatrends long-term driving forces which observable today will likely have transformational potential in future. By mapping megatrends at regional scale, establish geography detect where they coincide. Four significant for scale assessed: Climate change, demographic (post-) productivism shifts, increasingly stringent environmental regulations. The direction intensity differs between regions, drives regions different systemic lock-ins or dynamics. most converge destabilize current system, forewarning impending changes. While specific contributing instability differ regionally, result highlights that many on rather than stable trajectory, governance challenge steer dynamics towards desirable However, some found be highly persistent, indicating reinforce business as usual, change needs triggered through purposeful governance. minority may drive marginalization system becomes unviable. We argue research policies concerning agricultural sustainability transitions should cognizant diversity create.