The forecasting model of discharge at Brantas sub-basin using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and decomposition methods

A watershed is a combination of several rivers and tributaries with certain boundaries that function to drain rainwater into lake or sea. One the hydrological data contained in discharge data. If there incomplete data, it must be extended based on historical ARIMA decomposition are methods can predict time series The purposes this research determine patterns Brantas Sub-basin, know forecasting model results Sub-basin discharge, compare accuracy between methods. obtained by calculating MSE RMSE values. best method has smallest showed 2007-2017 seasonal pattern. (0,0,3)(1,0,1)12 model, while additive model. Decomposition better than predicting Sub-basin.