The Basic Reproduction Number as a Predictor for Epidemic Outbreaks in Temporal Networks
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
The Basic Reproduction Number as a Predictor for Epidemic Outbreaks in Temporal Networks
The basic reproduction number R0--the number of individuals directly infected by an infectious person in an otherwise susceptible population--is arguably the most widely used estimator of how severe an epidemic outbreak can be. This severity can be more directly measured as the fraction of people infected once the outbreak is over, Ω. In traditional mathematical epidemiology and common formulat...
متن کاملThe basic reproduction number and the probability of extinction for a dynamic epidemic model.
We consider the spread of an epidemic through a population divided into n sub-populations, in which individuals move between populations according to a Markov transition matrix Σ and infectives can only make infectious contacts with members of their current population. Expressions for the basic reproduction number, R₀, and the probability of extinction of the epidemic are derived. It is shown t...
متن کاملJoint estimation of the basic reproduction number and generation time parameters for infectious disease outbreaks.
The basic reproduction number is a key parameter determining whether an infectious disease will persist. Its counterpart over time, the effective reproduction number, is of value in assessing in real time whether interventions have brought an outbreak under control. In this paper, we use theoretical arguments and simulation to understand the relationship between estimation of the reproduction n...
متن کاملThe Basic Reproduction Number in a Multi-city Compartmental Epidemic Model
A directed graph with cities as vertices and arcs determined by outgoing (or return) travel represents the mobility component in a population of individuals who travel between n cities. A model with 4 epidemiological compartments in each city that describes the propagation of a disease in this population is formulated as a system of 4n ordinary differential equations. Terms in the system accoun...
متن کاملZika in Rio de Janeiro: Assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaks.
Zika virus infection was declared a public health emergency of international concern in February 2016 in response to the outbreak in Brazil and its suspected link with congenital anomalies. In this study, we use notification data and disease natural history parameters to estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0) of Zika in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We also obtain estimates of R 0 of dengue fro...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: PLOS ONE
سال: 2015
ISSN: 1932-6203
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0120567