The asymmetric effects of third-country exchange rate volatility on Turkish-German commodity trade

This study examines the asymmetric effects of third-country exchange rate volatility on Turkish-German commodity trade. We analyzed annual time-series data spanning 1980-2022 for 79 (93) Turkish export (import) industries. The ARDL model found that volatility, using lira-dollar, had a significant short-term symmetric effect 59 (67) NARDL short-run trade volumes in more than half and import However, turned into long-run about 50 percent results establish nonlinear models lead to effects. empirical evidence shows assumption alone is insufficient, should also be considered. suggest all traders consider how policy changes may affect cross-country when designing their policies diversified environment.