The 2022 Seismic Sequence in the Northern Adriatic Sea and Its Long-Term Simulation

We studied the long-term features of earthquakes caused by a fault system in northern Adriatic sea that experienced series quakes beginning with two main shocks magnitude 5.5 and 5.2 on 9 November 2022 at 06:07 06:08 UTC, respectively. This offshore system, identified through seismic reflection profiles, has low slip rate 0.2–0.5 mm/yr. As historical record spanning millennium does not extend beyond inter-event time for largest expected (M≃6.5), we used an earthquake simulator to generate 100,000-year catalogue 121 events Mw≥5.5. The simulation results showed recurrence (Tr) increasing from 800 yrs 1700 as threshold increased 6.5. However, standard deviation σ times remained stable value 700 regardless threshold. means coefficient variation (Cv=σ/Tr) decreased 0.9 0.4 6.5, making more predictable over larger magnitudes. Our study supports use renewal model hazard assessment regions moderate seismicity, especially when catalogues are available.