Temporal aggregation and SVAR identification, with an application to fiscal policy

Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks with External Instrument SVAR

We explore the use of external instrument SVAR to identify monetary policy shocks. We identify a forward guidance shock as the monetary shock component having zero instant impact on the policy rate. A contractionary forward guidance shock raises both future output and price level, stressing the relative importance of revealing policymakers’ view on future output and price level over committing ...

Cleavage Patterns and Social Conflict: A Theory with an Application to Political Conflict over Fiscal Policy

An Introduction into the SVAR Methodology: Identification, Interpretation and Limitations of SVAR models

This paper aims to provide a non-technical introduction into the SVAR methodology. Particular emphasize is put on the approach to identification in SVAR models, which is compared to identification in simultaneous equation models. It is shown that SVAR models are useful tools to analyze the dynamics of a model by subjecting it to an unexpected shock, whereas simultaneous equation models are bett...

Optimal Fiscal Policy With Oil Revenues

Commentary: Fiscal Policy and the Fiscal Position

As economics has developed, a number of different fiscal principles have been suggested. Perhaps the oldest principle was that the Government should balance its books. This principle was adopted by the 1979 Conservative Government but they delivered a budget in balance or in surplus only in 1988/89 and 1989/90. The same principle has been adopted in the Stability and Growth Pact, albeit with an...