Stochastic Delay Cost Functions to Estimate Delay Propagation Under Uncertainty

We provide a mathematical formulation of flight-specific delay cost functions that enables detailed tactical consideration how given flight will interact with all downstream constraints in the respective aircraft rotation. These are reformulated into stochastic to respect conditional probabilities and increasing uncertainty related more distant operational constraints. Conditional learned from historical operations data, such typical propagation patterns can support prioritization process as part airline schedule recovery. A case study compares impact deterministic on optimal recovery decisions during an airport constraint. find systematically overestimate potential disruption costs well high situations. Thus, optimisation based outperforms approach by up 15%, it reveals ‘hidden’ potentials. This results different slot allocations fewer passengers missing their connections.