Statistical Surveillance of Structural Breaks in Credit Rating Dynamics

نویسندگان
چکیده

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Credit rating dynamics in the presence of unknown structural breaks

In many credit risk and pricing applications, credit transition matrix is modeled by a constant transition probability or generator matrix for Markov processes. Based on empirical evidence, we model rating transition processes as piecewise homogeneous Markov chains with unobserved structural breaks. The proposed model provides explicit formulas for the posterior distribution of the time-varying...

متن کامل

Predictive effect of economic and market variations on structural breaks in credit rating dynamics

Recent studies have shown that firms credit rating transition process is not stationary and may have structural breaks. To study the predictability of structural breaks, we develop a predictive model for latent structural breaks in firms rating transition dynamics, using historical records of (highdimensional) economic and market fundamentals. As a large number of economic and market variables ...

متن کامل

Credit Rating Dynamics and Markov Mixture Models∗

Despite mounting evidence to the contrary, credit migration matrices, used in many credit risk and pricing applications, are typically assumed to be generated by a simple Markov process. Based on empirical evidence we propose a parsimonious model that is a mixture of (two) Markov chains, where the mixing is on the speed of movement among credit ratings. We estimate this model using credit ratin...

متن کامل

Predicting Credit Rating and Credit Rating Changes: A New Approach

In this paper, we propose a hazard rate model for studying credit rating and credit rating changes. Theoretically the hazard rate model is more appropriate than the previous static models. Yet it is difficult to estimate hazard rate model, especially when the covariates are time-varying. This paper extends the results of Shumway(2001) and shows that a multiple-state hazard rate model can be est...

متن کامل

Learning, Structural Breaks, and Asset-Return Dynamics

This paper studies a representative-agent asset-pricing model of an endowment economy in which the agent has incomplete knowledge about exogenous stochastic endowment process and has incentive to learn about the process with adaptive learning rules. There is the well documented fact that when underlying economic environment is known and is common knowledge to investors, asset-pricing models und...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Entropy

سال: 2020

ISSN: 1099-4300

DOI: 10.3390/e22101072