Static Socio-Ecological COVID-19 Vulnerability Index and Vaccine Hesitancy Index for England

Background: Population characteristics can be used to infer vulnerability of communities COVID-19, or the likelihood high levels vaccine hesitancy.  Communities harder hit by virus, at risk being so, stand benefit from greater resource allocation than their population size alone would suggest. This study reports a simple but efficacious method ranking small areas England relative that are linked with COVID-19 and hesitancy. Methods: Publicly available data on range previously either poor outcomes hesitancy were collated for all Middle Super Output Areas (MSOA, n=6790, excluding Isles Scilly), scaled combined into two numeric indices. Multivariable linear regression was build parsimonious model (static socio-ecological index, SEVI) in 60% MSOAs. Spearman correlation coefficients calculated between SEVI cumulative case rates MSOA level remaining 40% MSOAs over periods both during out national lockdowns. Similarly, novel index (VHI) constructed using aligned factors identified an Office National Statistics (ONS) survey analysis. The relationship VHI coverage people aged 12+years (as 24/06/2021) determined correlation. indices split quintiles, highest quintiles mapped. Findings: showed strong validation dataset across whole period, every intervening period studied except early pandemic when testing highly selective. more strongly correlated any its domains outperformed existing MSOA-level index. significantly negatively time writing (r -0·43 95% CI -0·46 -0·41). London had largest number proportion quintile 5 concurrently. Interpretation: presented offer way identifying geographical disparities risk, thus helping focus resources according need. Funding Information: Grant Integrated Covid Hub North East. Declaration Interests: DS CW part-funded Department Health Social Care grant Newcastle upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust COVID East purposes local response, paid via University (the primary employer authors). awarded FM.