Simulation and Evaluation of Water Resources Management Scenarios Under Climate Change for Adaptive Management of Coastal Agricultural Watersheds

Abstract The main objective of this paper is to analyze the impact climate change on water resources management and groundwater quantity quality in coastal agricultural Almyros Basin, Greece. Intensive abstractions for irrigation nitrogen fertilization crop production maximization, have caused a large deficit, nitrate pollution, as well seawater intrusion aquifer system. Multi-model projections Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 8.5) from Med-CORDEX database precipitation temperature been used evaluate impacts study area. multi-model bias-corrected with Delta, Delta Mean Variance, Quantile Change, Empirical Mapping, Gamma Mapping methods, statistically tested find best GCM/RCM ensemble. Simulation has performed using an Integrated Modelling System (IMS) that contains connected models surface hydrology (UTHBAL), (MODFLOW), leaching/crop growth (REPIC), pollution (MT3DMS), (SEAWAT). results indicate ensemble consists three (3) both RCP4.5 RCP8.5 bias-correction method. IMS was applied historical future periods observed simulated meteorological inputs (e.g. temperature) various agronomic scenarios storage works development (i.e. reservoirs). at least deficit along rain-fed cultivation schemes, combined or without operation reservoirs, should be overcome degradation basin. Based findings work, adaptive tackle problems Basin.