Shifting fish distributions impact predation intensity in a sub‐Arctic ecosystem

An abundance of studies in marine systems have documented species range shifts response to climate change, and many more used distribution models project ranges under future conditions. However, there is increasing interest moving beyond a single-species focus understand how redistribution alters ecosystem dynamics via changes trophic interactions. We employed spatiotemporal characterize decadal-scale spatial overlap between the juvenile walleye pollock Gadus chalcogrammus distributions four its groundfish predators: arrowtooth flounder Atheresthes stomias, Pacific cod macrocephalus, halibut Hippoglossus stenolepis adult pollock. These fishes represent ecologically commercially important rapidly changing sub-Arctic ecosystem, eastern Bering Sea, Alaska, USA. then examined whether corresponded predation, using predator stomach contents. found marked two predators (arrowtooth halibut) over 34 years, with corresponding increases population-scale predation pressure. By contrast, we did not find clear relationships for pollock, which constitute much smaller diet proportion. Our findings highlight complexity predicting generalist suggest need better process-based methods understanding potential ecological impacts coupled shifts. simple metrics relatively specialized their prey offer promise as means integrate predictions from into ecosystem-based fisheries management.