Shallow geothermal energy potential for heating and cooling of buildings with regeneration under climate change scenarios

Shallow ground-source heat pumps (GSHPs) are a promising technology for contributing to the decarbonisation of energy sector. In heating-dominated climates, combined use GSHPs both heating and cooling increases their technical potential, defined as maximum that can be exchanged with ground, re-injection excess from space leads seasonal regeneration ground. This paper proposes new approach quantify potential GSHPs, accounting effects regeneration, estimate useful supply building demands at regional scale. The is obtained direct exchange district (DHC) under several scenarios climate change market penetration levels systems. case study in western Switzerland suggests allows annual extraction densities above 300 kWh/m2 injection 330 kWh/m2. Results also show may cover up 63% 55% demand individual 2050 Switzerland, which 87% 85% if DHC used. regional-scale results serve inform decision making on strategic areas installing GSHPs.