Sensitivity of Vegetation to Climate in Mid-to-High Latitudes of Asia and Future Vegetation Projections

Mid- to high-latitude Asia (MHA) is one of the regions with strongest warming trend and it also a region where ecosystems are most sensitive climate variability. However, how vegetation in will change future remains uncertain. Using observation-based Leaf Area Index (LAI) meteorological data multiple regression method, this study analyzes response MHA elements during 1982–2020. Then, machine learning prediction models based on Random Forest (RF) Extreme Tree (ERT) algorithms built validated. Based calibrated fields from 17 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under intermediate (SSP2-4.5) high (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios models, LAI over 2021–2100 projected. The historical long-term increasing trends since 1982 found be mainly caused by near-surface air temperature, while interannual variations greatly affected precipitation surface downward solar radiation, especially summer. shows significant future, except some dry areas, stronger SSP5-8.5 scenario than SSP2-4.5 scenario.