Sensitivity analysis of atmospheric phenomena models for precipitation assessment on the Paraíba do Sul River Watershed

This paper is aimed at performing a group of experiments to evaluate the sensitivity cumulus and microphysics schemes, as represented in numerical simulations Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. The convective schemes Kain-Fritsch (KF), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), Grell-Devenyi (GD), Grell-Freita (GF), Grell 3D (G3D), Tiedtke New (NT) were tested association with Kessler, Purdue Lin, WSM3, WSM5, WSM6, ETA (Ferrier) Goddard (totaling forty-nine experiments) order identify combination which best represents cumulative rainfall distribution Paraíba do Sul watershed. In performance experiments, they submitted statistical tests bias (BIAS), root mean square error (RMSE), absolute (MAE) Coefficient Determination (R2). Results show that combinations WSM5 GD; G3D; Perdue Lin G3D form four physical configurations statistically similar able predict well Paraiba It was noticed also scheme has greater weight than being GD3 performing.