Seismic roulette: Hazards and risks

Abstract The Neo Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) is the innovative multi‐disciplinary scenario‐physics‐based approach for evaluation of seismic hazard and risks. When an earthquake occurs, ground shaking does not depend on its likelihood according to widespread Probabilistic Analysis (PSHA), which estimates are too often wrong. An “unlikely” can occur at any time and, sooner or later, with 100% probability. Therefore, from a perspective safety, it essential that infrastructure public installations designed so as resist future strong earthquakes. NDSHA has proven both reliably realistically simulate comprehensive sets hazardous motions in many regions worldwide. Today gaining momentum spreading worldwide Paradigm Reliable (RSHA) should ultimately change mind‐sets scientific engineering communities disbelief probabilistic forecasting optimistic challenging issues neo‐deterministic predictability Natural Hazards Risks.