Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models

Seasonal predictability and spatial coherence of rainfall

This study examines space-time characteristics of seasonal rainfall predictability in a tropical region, by analyzing observed data and model simulations over Senegal. Predictability is analyzed in terms of the spatial coherence of observed interannual variability at the station scale, and within-ensemble coherence of general circulation model (GCM) simulations with observed sea surface tempera...

ENSO Bred Vectors in Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere General Circulation Models

The breeding method has been implemented in the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) coupled general circulation model (CGCM) with the ultimate goal of improving operational seasonal to interannual climate predictions through ensemble forecasting and data assimilation. This is the first attempt to isolate the evolving ENSO instability and its corresponding global atmospheric ...

Transient Climate Response in Coupled Atmospheric–Ocean General Circulation Models

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) has a large uncertainty range among models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) and has recently been presented as ‘‘inherently unpredictable.’’ One way to circumvent this problem is to consider the transient climate response (TCR). However, the TCR among AR4 models also differs by more tha...

Seasonal Climate Prediction and Predictability of Atmospheric Circulation

Study of the models of large-scale atmospheric circulation system model on intesify rainfall in Ardebil plain

Atmospheric circulation is important to determine the surface climate and environment, and affect regional climate and surface features. In this study, to quantify its effect, the classification system, developed by Lamb is applied to obtain circulation information for Ardabil, North West Province in Iran, on a daily basis, and is a method to classify synoptic weather for study area. For that p...