Searching for Google's Value: Using Prediction Markets to Forecast Market Capitalization Prior to an Initial Public Offering
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Searching for Google’s Value: Using Prediction Markets to Forecast Market Capitalization Prior to an Initial Public Offering by
To inform theory and to investigate the practical application of prediction markets in a setting where the distribution of information across agents is critical, we conducted markets designed to forecast post-IPO valuations before a particularly unique IPO: Google. Because prediction markets allow us to infer the distribution of information before the IPO, the combination of results from our ma...
متن کاملSearching for Google's Value: Using Prediction Markets to Forecast Market Capitalization Prior to an Initial Public Offering
W conducted prediction markets designed to forecast post-initial public offering (IPO) valuations before a particularly unique IPO: Google. The prediction markets forecast Google’s post-IPO market capitalization relatively accurately. While Google’s auction-based IPO price was 15.3% below the first-day closing market capitalization, the final prediction market forecast was only 4.0% above it. T...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Management Science
سال: 2009
ISSN: 0025-1909,1526-5501
DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1080.0956