Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends (review article)

Abstract. The city of Venice and the surrounding lagoonal ecosystem are highly vulnerable to variations in relative sea level. In past ?150 years, this was characterized by an average rate sea-level rise about 2.5 mm/year resulting from combined contributions vertical land movement rise. This literature review reassesses synthesizes progress achieved quantification, understanding prediction individual local level, with a focus on most recent studies. Subsidence contributed half historical Venice. current best estimate during observational period 1872 2019 based tide-gauge data after removal subsidence effects is 1.23 ± 0.13 mm/year. A higher – but more uncertain observed for years. Between 1993 2019, change +2.76 1.75 estimated subsidence. Unfortunately, satellite altimetry does not provide reliable within Lagoon. Local changes closely depend Adriatic Sea, which turn linked Mediterranean Sea. Water mass exchange through Strait Gibraltar its drivers currently constitute source substantial uncertainty estimating future deviations mean trend global-mean value. Regional atmospheric oceanic processes will likely contribute significant interannual interdecadal variability Venetian level magnitude comparable that past. On basis regional projections affecting trends Venice, range atmospherically corrected 2100 ranges between 32 62 cm RCP2.6 scenario 58 110 RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. plausible unlikely high-end strong ice-sheet melting yields 180 2100. Projections human-induced motions available, evidence demonstrates they have potential produce contribution exacerbating hazard posed climatically induced changes.