Sea level rise drives carbon and habitat loss in the U.S. mid-Atlantic coastal zone

Coastal marshes and seagrass beds store millions of tons carbon in their sediments sequester at higher per-area rates than most terrestrial ecosystems. There is substantial interest this “blue carbon” as a mitigation strategy, despite the major threat that sea level rise (SLR) poses to these habitats. Many projections habitat change with SLR emphasize potential for inland marsh migration increased sequestration, but do not consider fluxes associated conversion. We integrated existing data models develop spatial model predicting changes due six mid-Atlantic U.S. states likely face coastal loss over next century low tidal ranges sediment supply. Our primary projection, using an intermediate scenario (1.2 m by 2104), predicts 83% 26% seagrasses study area. In addition, 270,000 hectares forest forested wetlands low-lying areas will convert marshes. These SLR-driven cause area shift from sink source our projection. Given many uncertainties about represented model, we also identified parameters assumptions strongly affected results inform future research needs. included: land availability migration, baseline extent location marshes, proportion stored emitted lost habitats (coastal or biomass carbon), methane emissions freshwater The switched net under all three runs; those runs, sequestration declined 57–99%.