Scenario Development and Foresight Analysis: Exploring Options to Inform Choices

Exploring Scenario Agents as Support for Key Technology Foresight

Today, the increasingly faster technological advances make the competition ever-fiercer in the business environment. This situation has laid emphasis on the importance of technology foresight for corporations to plan and even shape their futures for a long term. However, the conventional methods do not overcome the problems with the overload and heterogeneity of information in the current infor...

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Choices from Identical Options

Many of the decisions that people must make involve selections from arrays of identical options. The six studies presented explored people's preferences in two contexts: choosing one item from rows of identical items and choosing a route from a series of identical routes. The first three studies examined preferences for items in particular positions. Whether people were choosing a product from ...

Foresight and Delphi Processes as Information Sources for Scenario Planning

The series are ‘ideas in progress,’ after the notion described by I.J. Good in ‘The Scientist Speculates.’ Good also describes ideas about ideas as ‘partly baked ideas’ believing that “ ... it is often better to be stimulating and wrong than boring and right.” While these papers do not take this tenet as an excuse for licence at the expense of rigour, they are exploratory and the ideas may chan...

Foresight for digital development

This report discusses a number of digital developments, namely big data, the Internet of things, massive open online courses (MOOCs), three-dimensional printing and digital automation, and their potential long-term effects on the economy, society and the environment. Special focus is given to the role of technology foresight as a tool for policy planning in assessing the potential impact of the...