Risk, uncertainty, and exchange rates

Nonlinearity In Exchange Rates and Forecasting

Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Labour Market Adjustment under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates

The standard literature on working time has modelled the decisions of firms in a deterministic framework in which firms can choose between employment and overtime (given mandated standard hours). Contrary to this approach, we follow the real options approach, which allows us to investigate the value to a firm of waiting to adjust labour when the firm ́s revenues in domestic currency are stochast...

Calibrating measurement uncertainty in purchasing power parity exchange rates

Risk and Uncertainty in Bio-surveillance having Imperfect Detection Rates

1. Introduction Since the events of September 11 2001, there has been increased emphasis on monitoring and surveillance to detect and prevent further terrorist attacks. While significant resources have been devoted to the mechanics of screening, far less attention has been paid to quantifying the efficacy of these surveillance programs. Unlike the industrial setting where there is generally goo...

The Impact of Exchange Rate and Investor Confidence Uncertainty on Monetary and Economic Uncertainty in Iran

Failure to timely identify the occurrence of various shocks in the foreign exchange market due to the close relationship with the monetary, macroeconomic, and financial uncertainty can lead to crises and imbalances. In this paper, the effect of exchange rate and investor confidence on monetary and economic uncertainty in Iran is investigated, specifying a Multivariate GARCH model and the Grange...