Risk Assessment of a Large Constellation of Satellites in Low-Earth Orbit

This paper aims to assess the risk of mission termination for a large constellation satellites in low-Earth orbit. Many constellations will be deployed provide broadband network services using thousands satellites. There is concern that such have serious impact on long-term sustainability outer space activities due rapid increase population. First, therefore, authors conducted an assessment under nominal (referred as “business-as-usual”) basis prediction by ESA’s MASTER-2009 and NASA standard breakup model 2001 revision. The found nearly one catastrophic collision may happen constellation, generating more than two million fragments small 1 mm size. Second, further assuming hypothetical satellite spherical finite element adopted MASTER-2009. In consequence, another approximately half-million Therefore, collisions resulting secondary should prevented constellations.