Rising agricultural water scarcity in China is driven by expansion of irrigated cropland in water scarce regions

•Scarce irrigation water use reversed to increase since 2011 in China•Agricultural imports and reduced intensity alleviated scarcity•Scarce was coupled with irrigated cropland expansion the north•Spatial shifts of drove rising agriculture scarcity China’s ability meet water-related targets 2030 sustainable development agenda is threated by increasing agricultural scarcity. We show that scarce China rose last decade due north, even if reducing volume used. These results showcase large impacts current compensation policies. Better-defined guidelines for requisition-compensation balance policy fully consider are urgently needed avoid magnitude associated sustainability challenges. should be integrated ecosystem conservation policy, through incorporating territorial spatial planning, serious impact surrounding natural ecosystems. Increasing threatening food security China. Previous studies showed a deceleration growth intensities irrigation. 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Firstly, combine requirements estimated GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (GEPIC) Stress Index (WSI) investigate prefecture-level 2004 2017, fills niche analyzing small units called prefectures, thanks unique nationwide survey dataset Secondly, apply divisia (LMDI) detect level. employ information do coupling/decoupling finest so far revealing Thirdly, “land-water” nexus explore upgrading find though curbing Our reveals presence low-level versus high-level coupling decoupling This finding complements showing decelerated water-use irrigation, it provides evaluate use.ResultsChina’s useDemand (SWU) experienced fluctuated decrease before decreasing ?0.46 × 109 m3y?1 then rapid speed 1.70 (Figure 1). In changes, our divided two time periods, 2004–2011 (P1) 2011–2017 (P2). starting year, 2004, marks onset era turning point denotes reverse year. periods overlay 11th (2006–2010) 12th (2011–2015) 5-year plan. national-level changed ?0.6% +2.5%, respectively. noted 2010 unusual year because historic southwestern provinces according Annual National Statistics, prominent year.From 2011, SWU decreased 4.5%, southern rates ?3.2% ?12.9%, respectively 2). all river basins south except Southwest 2.7%. By sharp contrast, north Inland margin 14.1%, aggregation regions. period 2011–2017, 14.9%. 18.8% period, while remained 14.0%. Specially, (+4.1 m3, +25.0%), Yellow (+1.7 +17.2%), Huai (+5.3 +26.5%) during 2).Figure 2Spatiotemporal SWUShow full captionSWR, Basin; YZR, Yangtze PRB, Pearl SER, Southeast IRB, inland YER, HRB, HAI, SLR, Basin. SWR, SER SLR See Section S1 supplemental details.View Large Image Figure ViewerDownload Hi-res image Download (PPT)Drivers SWUFigure 3A shows total requirement (LR) 17.4%. (?WUI), ratio (?WSR), (?IR) SWU. calculation formulae ?WUI, ?WSR, ?IR presented (Equation 8), 9), 10) experimental procedures. detail, ?WUI ?13.8% P1 3A), ?7.3 percentage points attributed wheat ?4.7 maize; ?WSR ?6.0% ?2.1 maize ?2.0 rice 4A ); ?3.5% P1. self-sufficient (?SS) +1.4% P1.Figure 3Decomposition levelShow caption(A) Drivers 2017 China.(B) Contribution shares 2017. WSR, ratio; IR, SS, WUI, intensity; SE, (which corresponds reciprocal productivity); DC, dietary change; CON, capita; POP, population; LR, including sowing areas