Rising Above Chaotic Likelihoods

Rising Above Principle

The Value of a Rose: Rising above Objectivism and Subjectivism

After my conclusion in the previous PrimaVera working paper that objectivism does not provide a firm theoretical foundation for information management, the question probed in this chapter is whether or not subjectivism can offer a convincing alternative basis. Ultimately, the answer is negative because subjectivists rarely specifically pay attention to what is the bottom line for private and, i...

Approximate Likelihoods

In complex models likelihood functions may be difficult to compute, or depend on assumptions about high order dependencies that may be difficult to verify. A number of methods have been devised to compute inference functions either meant to approximate the true likelihood function, or to provide inferential summaries that balance statistical efficiency with ease of computation. Examples include...

Lawyers' Likelihoods

This paper explores whether lawyers can understand and apply the criminal burden of proof, and whether they are able to make the sort of likelihood estimates that the expert witness suggested would help the jurors in the case of R v Adams. The English Court of Appeal expressly rejected the use of mathematical formulae to determine guilt or innocence. With this kind of restraining judgment, it i...

Testability, Likelihoods, and Design

It is often assumed by friends and foes alike of intelligent design that a likelihood approach to design inferences will require evidence regarding the specific motives and abilities of any hypothetical designer. Elliott Sober, like Venn before him, indicates that this information is unavailable when the designer is not human (or at least finite) and concludes that there is no good argument for...