Resolving the Raven Paradox: Simple Random Sampling, Stratified Random Sampling, and Inference to Best Explanation

Abstract Simple random-sampling resolutions of the raven paradox relevantly diverge from scientific practice. We develop a stratified model, yielding better fit and apparently rehabilitating simple random sampling as legitimate idealization. However, neither accommodates second concern, objection potential bias. third model that crucially invokes causal considerations, novel resolution handles both concerns. This approach resembles Inference to Best Explanation (IBE) relates generalization’s confirmation an associated law. give it objective Bayesian formalization discuss compatibility Bayesianism IBE.