Reservoir-Induced Land Deformation: Case Study from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

The Nile River stretches from south to north throughout the Basin (NRB) in Northeast Africa. Ethiopia, where Blue originates, has begun construction of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which will be used generate electricity. However, impact GERD on land deformation caused by significant water relocation not been rigorously considered scientific research. In this study, we develop a novel approach for predicting large-scale induced reservoir. We also investigate limitations using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow On (GRACE-FO) mission detect GERD-induced deformation. simulated three scenarios related filling expected reservoir volume, 70 km3, 5-, 10-, 15-year scenarios. results indicated: (i) trends downward vertical displacement estimated at −17.79 ± 0.02, −8.90 0.09, −5.94 0.05 mm/year, scenarios, respectively; (ii) western (eastern) parts are move toward reservoir’s center +0.98 0.01 (−0.98 0.01), +0.48 0.00 (−0.48 0.00), +0.33 (−0.33 0.00) under 10- strategies, (iii) northern part is moving southward +1.28 +0.64 0.01, +0.43 while southern northward −3.75 0.04, −1.87 −1.25 during examined (iv) GRACE-FO can only 15% produced Methods demonstrated study provide insights into possible impacts impoundment surface deformation, adopted project or similar future dam plans.