Reassessing wildfire susceptibility and hazard for mainland Portugal

Abstract Recent large wildfires have caused serious environmental and social impacts in different areas of the world, such as Portugal, Greece Australia. Sociodemographic changes rural climate change issues create unprecedented challenging circumstances that call for an adjustment fire management strategies planning tools. In this research, we revise procedure to assess wildfire susceptibility hazard mainland Portugal a structural perspective. Based on dataset burned covering 44 years set predisposing factors related topography landcover, tested several models using Likelihood Ratio method, calculate favourability scores. Landcover classes were analysed national detailed sources considering timeframes. Hazard levels obtained by combining model with best accuracy probability burn estimated from history (1975–2018). The resulting values classified 5 based breaks success curve, instead quantiles previous maps, ensure territorial continuity at spatial scales. results show where combination terrain features is more favorable propagation. higher scores found shrubland-type vegetation, whereas agricultural areas, cork holm forests lower Eucalyptus maritime pine similar intermediate increased since 2007. two highest classify correctly 90% area over 44 years, demonstrating high model. If integrated instruments, conjunction municipal plans, most hazardous may hinder expansion built-up areas. About 2% municipalities than their territory hazardous, 32% have, instead, less 10% area. These maps are useful baseline long-term approach can be complemented estimations regarding behavior severity wildfires, which should further explored.