Ratcheting up effectiveness to improve the Global Stocktake process

The Paris Agreement rests on voluntary emissions reduction pledges but does not mandate that are sufficiently ambitious to collectively limit warming acceptable levels. Instead, it relies the “ratcheting mechanism” of Global Stocktake. As world falls further from trajectories compatible with Agreement, a safe and just future increased global effort. This Voices asks: what is needed for Stocktake be pivotal mechanism raising climate ambitions action? (GST) critical step in helping ensure Earth remains liveable. It will assess how well we doing globally meeting goals (mitigation), adapting impacts, implementing Agreement. However, needs move beyond telling us haven’t done enough. To support necessary deep system transformations, need combine our treatment adaptation, mitigation sustainable development, pursue climate-resilient development. We know enables development: ecosystem stewardship, knowledge diversity, equity justice, inclusion across different arenas engagement. involvement non-Party stakeholders (e.g., cities, regions, local authorities) GST dialogues demonstrates some these enablers can put into practice. easy over-emphasize process. What matters more outcomes actions enacted at national For this, political will, leadership, systems approach, re-prioritization, delivering inclusive development choices emphasize risk reduction, equity, justice governance levels, sectors, time frames, particularly concerning level access finance. If situate core its recommendations, could accelerating transformations. I really hope succeeds because window opportunity keep change check rapidly closing. Assessments such as those released by IPCC, impacts recent extreme events, have made utterly clear cannot afford lose mitigate greenhouse gas substantially. first COP28 comes when failing curb large scale struggling implement nationally determined contributions net-zero targets while themselves falling short reflection, re-composition, addressing shortcomings had cropped up due COVID-19 pandemic, economic hardships, conflicts, other distractions. GST, therefore, must go observations assessments. Just knowing far off achieving enough: concrete implementable mechanisms bridging gaps. Incremental solutions various sectors energy efficiency, industrial processes, specific technologies, or best practices helpful starting points sufficient. Parties consider systemwide transformation, deep-penetrating policies enable solid long-lasting outcomes, rapid upscaling best-practice technologies solutions, finance developing countries capacity building, focus implementation, name few. Decarbonization systems, land forest food behavioral change, transition climate-mitigation agenda. provided missed. has two linked aims: (1) review collective progress toward identify remaining gaps (2) drive increases ambition action. Two considerations crucial effectiveness this First, GST’s success depend ability facilitate learning meaning-making among Parties, who develop an up-to-date, shared understanding meaning goals, state action, much distance been closed, likely pathways ahead, new emerging challenges tipping points). Scientific information play important role process, kinds sources also needed. Importantly, vast amount available effectively organized analyzed derive relevant insights distill messages. Civil society actors, e.g., associated Independent Stocktake, providing much-needed tools synthesizing making useful. Second, only succeed if shape interests, dynamics, decisions actors scale. focuses exclusively international community. Absent any country-specific insights, translated scaled down so they taken used domestic policymaking, especially NDC revision processes. independent providers CarbonBrief, Climate Action Tracker) major results salient decision around world. Human activities burning fossil resulted threatens very survival small island states (SIDSs) low-lying coastal via worsened storms floods loss vibrant fisheries, which caused US$153 billion losses 1970 2020. lessen risks, aims temperature rise 1.5°C above pre-industrial requires reach (GHG) peak soon possible neutrality 2050. Despite being responsible <1% GHG emissions, SIDSs set (NDCs) committed firmly reaching merely checklist under issue strong declaration guidance next steps. A successful all means continued championing through updated NDCs 2025, including strengthened 2030 align long-term goal plans get there. SIDSs, place considerable attention improving cooperation since calls developed adaptation efforts. provide accessibility building resilience damage. outcome cycles vehicle renewal fight against change. science clear. sustained reductions agri-food sector, contributes one-third total temperatures within 1.5 2 degrees end century, sector compromise security poorest populations regions like sub-Saharan Africa South Asia. Unfortunately, given diversity inherent there no one-size-fits-all solution. example, work mechanised farms US appropriate small-holder farmers pastoralists Africa. range help take low-emission pathways: Reducing unsustainable consumption where harmful effects health, climate, environment introduction alternative proteins high-income countries); increasing production healthy nutritious without expanding agriculture lands prevent deforestation adoption resilient crops breeds higher yields); reducing damage natural resources agroecological approaches); fertilizers innovations feed fodder supplements livestock reduce enteric methane emissions); prioritizing interests digital agricultural services, South). systematic assessment policies, their enabling conditions, finance, scaling globally. grapples urgent clean sources, one significant barrier remains: official export fuels. In fact, credit agencies (ECAs) single largest group public institutions supporting fuel investments shift towards avoid locking-in carbon intensive infrastructure. At level, governments therefore realign prioritize energy. Glasgow Statement launched COP26 signatories direct fuels 2022. Some European already implemented phasing out ramping support, notably Export Finance Future Coalition. Other exporters Canada lagging behind urgently ECAs OECD banned coal agreed expand climate-friendly technologies. These efforts bolstered, restricting oil projects. Indeed, use limited funds infrastructures shocking failure targets. vital considers fit achieved, incorporating metrics evaluate financing allocated renewable projects compared highlighting practice examples. IPCC report Working Group II shows largely incremental—tinkering round edges existing rather than changes adapt 2°C world, even almost 3 currently heading for. neglected politically challenging areas re-thinking trade rules build shocks supply chains people homes become uninhabitable. involve bringing together coalitions fragmented issues labeled priorities. do governments, corporations systems. potential multiple breadbaskets systemic goes individual government evaluating current policy delivered do. re-evaluate match ofchange needed, address deliver transformative Finally, measurement tool Adaptation shapes action norms incentives increase demonstrating short-term “success.” growing, yet gap 5–10 times greater flows. show flows adaptation. generally cost-effective, key proportion targeting overwhelming allocation mitigation. Also, private still both Improved availability of, to, alignment accelerated Elevating high-level ministries planning, streamline flows, improve strategy governance, plan cross-sector, cross-border, cascading risks. Substantial investment assist household-level coping scalable, institutionalized, interventions. Policy mixes vulnerability, maladaptation, actors. mobility benefit investing social protection, boosting literacy. technology transfer integration early-warning Indigenous smallholder farmers. research inequities funding evidence works, attribution outcomes. moment geopolitical rivalries challenge devastating crisis 1.2°C felt globe. Bold steps required expansion renewables provision track. between countries’ commitments what’s yawning. close gap, latest peaking before 2025 road halving 2030. Given trajectory “peaking possible”—as according Agreement’s Article 4—would challenging, impossible achieve. Although CO2 growing estimates Carbon Project, appears growth rate slowed structural intensity economy apparent. response substantially emission restore faith crisis. would argue commitment looking S.F. notes was supported UKRI Leaders Fellowship (grant number MR/W008572/1). authors declare competing interests.