Quantifying the climate exposure of priority habitat constrained to specific environmental conditions: Boreal aapa mires

Climate velocity is an increasingly used metric to detect habitats, locations and regions which are exposed high rates of climate change displacement. In general, velocities measured based on the assumption that future climatically similar can occur anywhere in study landscape. However, this provide a biased basis for habitats constrained specific environmental conditions. For such set selected suitable may ecologically more realistic measures. Here, we focus one environmentally habitat, aapa mires, peat-accumulating EU Habitats Directive priority whose ecological conditions biodiversity values be jeopardised by change. We assess exposure mires Finland developing metrics separately whole ?10 ha mire complexes (‘aapa mires’) their wettest flark-dominated parts (‘flark fens’). Velocity were developed six bioclimatic variables (growing degree days (GDD5), mean January July temperatures, annual precipitation, May water balance, data 1981–2010 2040–2069 as derived from global models two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 RCP8.5). variables, calculated distance between present-day nearest mire, divided number years periods, excluding unsuitable matrix. Both flark fens showed (>5 km/year) changes temperature, often also considerably GDD5 temperatures. The significantly higher than had smaller amount corresponding habitat surroundings. Thus, many studied particularly fens, likely face increased risks due winter summer Moreover, considerable precipitation-related at southern margin zone. Our results show specifically tailored useful quantitative tool inform conservation management decisions support ecosystem sustainability biotope targeting restoration towards most vulnerable mires.