Quantifying changes and drivers of runoff in the Kaidu River Basin associated with plausible climate scenarios

The Kaidu River Basin (KRB) is located on the central southern slope of Tianshan Mountain in Northwest China. This work aimed to assess changes and main drivers snowmelt-driven runoff KRB associated with three future climate scenarios. Six versions "Cemaneige" snowmelt module embedded hydrological model "GR4J" were calibrated evaluated. bias-corrected datasets from CMIP5 Models used drive optimal snowmelt-hydrological for prediction. factors that lead variations also assessed. significant declining trends only predicted RCP4.5 RCP8.5 found all seasons. For annual summer runoff, compared historical period, both RCP2.6 RCP 4.5 periods showed a decline mid-century rise end-century; however, continuous during this period. Precipitation evapotranspiration ranked as two most important regulating RCPs. In contrast, timing second factor its importance decreases warmer These results highlighted depends responses trajectory temperature precipitation.