Projection of precipitation extremes over South Asia from CMIP6 GCMs

Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters, often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide. It is therefore important to use current global climate models project future changes extremes. The present study aims assess extremes over South Asia from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs). results were derived using modified Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, student’s t-test, probability density function approach. Eight extreme indices assessed, including wet days (RR1mm), heavy (RR10mm), very (RR20mm), severe (RR50mm), consecutive (CWD), dry (CDD), maximum 5-day amount (RX5day), simple daily intensity index (SDII). estimated two time periods for 21st century (i.e., near (NF; 2021–2060) far (FF; 2061–2100)) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5). suggest increases frequency SSP5-8.5 scenario towards end (2061–2100). Moreover, multimodel ensemble means (MMEMs), RR1mm, RR10mm, RR20mm, CWD, SDII demonstrate remarkable FF period scenario. spatial distribution shows intensification eastern part compared western part. suggests a frequent (intense) occurrence scenario, with values up 35.00 d RR1mm 25.00–35.00 CWD. potential impacts can pose serious challenges area regarding flooding, soil erosion, water resource management, food security, agriculture development.