Projected future changes in equatorial wave spectrum in CMIP6

نویسندگان

چکیده

The simulation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) is considered in 13 state-of-the-art models from phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We use frequency–wavenumber power spectra observations for Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) zonal winds at 250 hPa (U250), consider historical simulations end twenty-first century projections SSP245 SSP585 scenarios. simulate a spectrum quantitatively resembling that observed, though systematic biases exist. MJO Kelvin (KW) are mostly underestimated, while Rossby (ER) overestimated. Most project future increase MJO, nearly all robust KW weaker values most other wavenumber–frequency combinations, including higher wavenumber ER. In addition to strengthening, also shift toward speeds (or equivalent depths). Models with more realistic their control climate tend stronger intensification.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Climate Dynamics

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['0930-7575', '1432-0894']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06510-y