Probability-theoretic investigations on inheritance, XII-1. Probability of paternity

Paternity exclusion and probability of paternity.

The principles of paternity exclusion and current systems of paternity testing are reviewed. Recent advances, especially the utilization of human leukocyte antigens (HLA), have greatly improved the likelihood of exclusion of the innocent accused male. Failure to exclude an alleged father through multiple test systems increases the suspicion that he is the biological father. This can be expresse...

Measure Theoretic Probability

Preface In these notes we explain the measure theoretic foundations of modern probability. The notes are used during a course that had as one of its principal aims a swift introduction to measure theory as far as it is needed in modern probability, e.g. to define concepts as conditional expectation and to prove limit theorems for martingales. Everyone with a basic notion of mathematics and prob...

Measure-Theoretic Probability I

Prequential probability: game-theoretic = measure theoretic

This article continues study of the prequential framework for evaluating a probability forecaster. Testing the hypothesis that the sequence of forecasts issued by the forecaster is in agreement with the observed outcomes can be done using prequential notions of probability. It turns out that there are two natural notions of probability in the prequential framework: game-theoretic, whose idea go...

analysis of ruin probability for insurance companies using markov chain

در این پایان نامه نشان داده ایم که چگونه می توان مدل ریسک بیمه ای اسپیرر اندرسون را به کمک زنجیره های مارکوف تعریف کرد. سپس به کمک روش های آنالیز ماتریسی احتمال برشکستگی ، میزان مازاد در هنگام برشکستگی و میزان کسری بودجه در زمان وقوع برشکستگی را محاسبه کرده ایم. هدف ما در این پایان نامه بسیار محاسباتی و کاربردی تر از روش های است که در گذشته برای محاسبه این احتمال ارائه شده است. در ابتدا ما نشا...