Probabilistic assessment of equivalent fracture aperture constrained on quasi-real-time drilling mud loss data

Abstract We provide a rigorous workflow to quantify the effects of key sources uncertainty associated with equivalent fracture aperture estimates w constrained through mud loss information acquired while drilling well in reservoir. A stochastic inverse modeling framework is employed estimate probability distribution . This choice consistent quantity and quality available data. The approach allows assessing that values inferred from events exceed given threshold. rely on streamlined analytical solution model losses drilling. explicitly consider uncertainties parameters forcing terms, including fluid rheological properties flow rates, pore pressure, dynamic pressure. synthetic scenario considered transparent reference setting against which our can be appraised. then applied real-case scenario. latter data monitored rig site. direct comparison impact collected two common techniques (respectively, relying meter sensors or pump strokes) ensuing provided. detailed analysis related level corruption also performed, considering various levels measurement errors. Results field suggest proposed yields are compatible interpretations traditional analyses image logs. stemming indirect display similar shapes. suggests viability probabilistic inversion methodology assist quasi-real-time identification apertures basis routinely during