Probabilistic analysis of Vette fault stability in potential CO2 storage site Smeaheia, offshore Norway

Abstract Reliable assessment of fault stability is key for safe CO2 storage in a saline aquifer fault-bounded structures. The Alpha structure located the Vette fault's footwall Smeaheia area, offshore Norway, one potential sites with three-way closure. Assessing area challenging because uncertainties associated subsurface properties (i.e., rock lithologies, strength and geometry faults, etc.). Besides, injection-related pore pressure changes another critical factor mechanical deformation failure. We employed stochastic analytical approach to assess probability failure using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) First Order Reliability Method (FORM). possible smear scenarios zone are evaluated by interpreting seismic section detailed geological understanding. Each scenario's likelihood corresponding then integrated stochastically an event tree method. Overall, system reliability shows good average performance range, which has between 10?3 10-4. This finding suggests that will likely act as barrier during injection into structure. Moreover, sensitivity study reveals stresses (both horizontal vertical) cohesion friction angle) most crucial parameters characterize uncertainty reduction.