PREDICTIVE ABILITY OF EGG PRODUCTION MODELS

Estimation of the Predictive Ability of Ecological Models

The conventional criteria for predictive model selection do not indicate the absolute goodness of models. For example, the quantity of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) has meanings only when we compare AIC of different models for a given amount of data. Thus, the existing criteria do not tell us whether the quantity and quality of data is satisfactory, and hence we cannot judge whether we sho...

A new measure of predictive ability for survival models

In clinical research, an understanding of prognostic factors is important in the design and analysis of clinical trials and retrospective reviews of clinical experience. The results of prognostic factor studies are usually summarized in the form of statistics resulting from statistical significance testing, i.e. estimated parameters, confidence intervals, and p-values. These statistics do not i...

Evaluation of egg production in layers using random regression models.

The objectives of this study were to estimate genetic parameters for egg production over the age trajectory in 3 layer lines, which represent different biotypes for egg production, and to validate the use of breeding values for slope as a measure of persistency to be used in the selection program. Egg production of more than 26,000 layers per line from 6 consecutive generations were analyzed wi...

Predictive ability of C-reactive protein for stroke

Tests of conditional predictive ability

We propose a framework for out-of-sample predictive ability testing and forecast selection designed for use in the realistic situation in which the forecasting model is possibly misspecified, due to unmodeled dynamics, unmodeled heterogeneity, incorrect functional form, or any combination of these. Relative to the existing literature (Diebold and Mariano (1995) and West (1996)), we introduce tw...