Predictions of Land Use/Land Cover Change and Landscape Pattern Analysis in the Lower Reaches of the Tarim River, China

Natural vegetation on both sides of the Tarim River Basin (TRB) is only barrier—a critical ecological niche—between economic belt in artificial oasis and Taklimakan Desert. To understand impact human activities TRB, we explored spatial temporal variations land use/land cover change (LUCC) landscape pattern evolution from 2000 to 2020. These were simulated for 2030 with 20 years data using cellular automata–Markov model geographical information system analyses. The results predicted substantial LUCCs lower reaches (TRlr), 3400 km2 (20.29%) total area (16,760.94 km2) undergoing changes. Wetland, land, grassland, farmland, forestland areas increased by 578.59, 43.90, 339.90, 201.62, 536.11 km2, respectively, during period 2020 2030. decreases Gobi/other deserts bare soils (1700.13 km2). We also determined current future changes TRlr indices at class levels. Combined a field survey hydrological data, theoretical support effective use management strategies provided. findings offer scientific basis civilization construction sustainable development TRB.