Prediction of Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm “Fani” Using Moving Nested Domain

نویسندگان

چکیده

The prediction of extremely severe cyclonic storms has been a long-standing and challenging issue due to their short life period large variation in intensities over time. In this study, we predict the track, intensity, structure an storm (ESCS) named ‘Fani,’ which developed Bay Bengal region from 27 April 4 May 2019, using Advanced Research version Weather Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. Two numerical experiments were conducted moving nested domain method with 3 km horizontal resolution, one FLUX-1 air-sea flux parameterization scheme other FLUX-2 scheme. NCEP operational Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis forecast datasets 25 resolution used derive initial boundary conditions. WRF model’s predicted track intensity validated best-fit dataset India Meteorological Department (IMD), was different observations. results showed that model accurately landfall (position time), (minimum sea level pressure maximum surface wind) storm. errors on days 1 approximately 47 km, 123 96 experiment 54 142 152 166 experiment, respectively. better during first 60 h, while it for remaining period. structure, terms relative humidity, water vapor, reflectivity, temperature anomaly storm, also discussed compared available satellite Doppler Radar

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Atmosphere

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['2073-4433']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14040637