Prediction Machines

My essay has several connected histories to unravel about the construction and use of new forms informational mediated control by elite groups secure political economic realities. It is part a longer project on history “the digital” as modality specific praxis control. “Prediction Machines” began an experiment in writing present with backward-directed glance historian” that unraveled over time into genealogy state commercial orchestration information, prediction, mediation populations.1 In this short my focus period from 2007 onwards, but which it drawn unravels backwards explore governmentality, capital, across deep racialized capitalism. Our pivots around years 2007-8. 2007, for example, research efforts way information spreads online, what reveals people, series collaborative projects between scholars working computational social sciences (and emergent field “psychometrics”) alongside researchers U.S. U.K. military digital technology industries. One first experiments created “Application” newly Facebook platform gave users standardized personality test designed “measure” five significant components “personality.”2 Users taking could opt share scores their profiles, enabling correlate “personality” profile. Over meant “personality type” be predicted given people freely Facebook. “Private traits attributes are predictable records human behavior,” title widely cited 2013 paper written collaboratively academy industry, illustrates concisely results experiment.3 Corresponding suggested tabulating “Like” (after company introduced feature 2009 gather more lucrative data people) can accurately predict “traits attributes.”4 midst research, beginning 2008, Minerva Initiative Department Defense distributed millions dollars support science exploring ways influence leveraged facilitate “US strategic interests globally.”5 aimed “develop dynamic statistical network techniques … alter distribution power or stabilize destabilize communities.”6 2011, US Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) four-year program “Social Media Strategic Communication” expansive re-tooling “counterinsurgency” “psychological operations” era ongoing “War Terror.”7 9/11 2001 obviously played key role creation border-security “data analytics” praxis. 2012, similarly, 15 (U.K.) Psychological Operations Group, British military, imported “Targeted Audience Analysis” methodology developed psychological operations organization called Communication Laboratories (SCL) its practices “counter-terrorism” “counter-radicalization.”8 2013, patented form “audience analysis” gathering produce predictions “insurgents” was deployed Science Technology Laboratory shape communication media directed towards young Islamic populations.9 Collectively, practice (henceforth praxis) shared out academic, corporate, institutions gathered pace after birth “social media” indeed “smartphone”) demonstrated give leave online reveal used generate pre-emptively affect attitudes conduct. process, counterinsurgent innovated dissident (often racialized) populations ensure security “strategic interests” fused extraction “psychometric” modelling integral “surveillance” “platform capitalism” become routine everyday practices. The “government” conduct crisscrossed continue example exploration threads present, SCL paid private contractor develop “motivation segmentation profile” two “lawless” provinces Yemen.10 Counterinsurgent (of borders oil-rich Saudi Arabia Suez Canal shipping route) proceeded through analysis country’s system. turn, Targeted Analysis “unique behavioral methodology” “identify” aspects “non-Desired behavior” population “can best challenged.”11 monitor “unrest” Middle East during “Arab Spring,” missions Libya Afghanistan.12 same company, growing wealthy contracts War Terror “revolt public,” contracted Trinidad Ministry National Security find predicting crime disorder.13 Mobilizing methodology, operatives tapped directly live feeds Internet Service Providers country correlating profiles offline such censuses credit discern “personality.” rendition where ghost traces experience were secretly extracted exchanged others frantic search data) rendered algorithms determining producing security.14 Raw material (in information) stolen, extracted, mined processed valuable commodity prediction. time, these built self-learning trigger automated sharing messages specifically people.15 other related example. 2016, spin-off (financed radical libertarian investment banker experimental psychometric emerging 2007) worked Republican Party election year enable prediction dissuade Black citizens voting.16 year, similar referendum membership European Union mobilized build predictive models “flood zone” 1.5 billion “dark ads” personally last week campaign urging Take Back Control refugees, migrants, “globalists.”17 all examples, countless principally “digital produces future interest triggers marshal influence. Crucially, (stretching “Yemeni terrorists” “Trinidadian criminals” “Young Muslims” “Black American citizens”) assumed lack sovereignty, capacity self-government, problems must foreclosed deployment media. Out emerged paradigm control.18 did not begin here, certainly, one central genealogical thread connections imperial counterinsurgency But accelerated intensified. 2007/8 turning point, growth demonstrating utility influence, rush” ensued those years, became “platform”;19 Google spent $3.1 buy targeted-advertising tracked people’s movements Internet;20 “exceptional” extraordinarily PRISM collecting analyzing “Internet communication” component global (to foster “security” “control”) expanded declaration Terror.21 also, Barack Obama’s “App” integrated platform, making pools company’s graph,” success sparked systematic informational, predictive, influential possibilities organizations.22 certainly long eight election” “Project Alamo” 2016 using disenfranchise citizens. Or circulation billions texts mobilize (broadly reorder reality. 2008 coincided collapse financialized economy triggering crisis most recent episode “primitive accumulation” looting, enclosure, predation ontological capitalism.23 (In brief, offsetting risk failed systemic because perverse incentives “sub-prime” mortgages “designed they would almost inevitably fail” targeted at poor populations, who had homes foreclosed, response bailed financial entities enforced austerity populations.)24 bailing banks insurance corporations while enforcing obvious dictates liberalism overriding democracy, simple illustration reality capital’s government.25 since then, ruins neo-liberalism,” bloc I shall moment call “radical liberals” affordances fashion control.26 concrete fore-mentioned outfit SCL, Cambridge Analytica, “Brexit” referendum, financed billionaire hedge-fund CEO waging war against taxation government.27 U.S., U.K., principal agendas trans-Atlantic have been degradation “deconstruction” government broadly “freedom” regulations capital. Often liberals oppose contribute public good, well protect environments, espouse positions opposed liberal-democratic precariously balanced “liberty” “equality” essential democracy popular sovereignty. grew early 1970s direct opposition Civil Rights school desegregation governmental racial equality.28 Put simply, libertarians ideal equality work disable egalitarianism (like schooling health care) “protect capitalism government.”29 aftermath fracturing order, complex transatlantic ethno-nationalists government, equality, incoherently) globalization seized some means degrade (Broadly, see “neoliberal” order established 1970s, continues sclerotic zombie-like fashion, despite failures escalating crises order.)30 “Brexit,” parameters clearer, then journalists, commissioners, scholars, filmmakers explored myriad “bot networks,” “astroturfing,” microtargeting, disinformation, more, wielded blocs elites fracture re-order bears emphasizing battering idea concerted effort, many making, capital translated deregulation name “freedom.” bluntly, concision, borrowing philosopher Achille Mbembe, we describe violent “necropolitical” project, “political reconstituting itself death,” expense environments.31 roots, course, enslavement, imperialism, capitalism; accelerates wake amid also pressing realities climate breakdown, back control.32 now close present. After too, clear Russian marshaled reality.33 Once again, developments pivot 2007-8, expropriation crisis, when Russia trialed cyberwar Estonia president (the fabulously Vladimir Putin) rewrote democratic constitution Soviet inaugurate sovereign democracy.34 term invented technologist” orchestrate breakdown fashioning autocratic system.35 fraudulent elections 2011 technologists fashioned strategy over-write sustain oligarchic kleptocratic government. unleashed Ukraine, invaded verge joining practiced “cyberwar” confuse disorient opposition.36 From 2014, ongoing, hacking leaking infiltrating Europe aim identify augment division. Using fake accounts (about 60 million them Facebook) bot networks fifty thousand Twitter), circulate orchestrated amplify enmity, reality, possibility democracy.37 Indeed, plenty evidence exists suggest access scraped elsewhere 2014-16 among researchers, scientists, special forces fomenting enmity) profiling prediction.38 circulated sought intensify racist affects (as Russians boosted produced together offshoot corporation citizens);39 purposefully destroy links than enmity. Often, “astroturfed,” jumbled fictions “alternative facts” masquerading real, marshalled elites, oligarchs, rogue states, and/or oligopolies profiting “virality” information. mostly Empire markets Overall, sphere military-created privatized mid-1990s presented opportunities beyond editorial gatekeepers, sketched thus far. marked rupture manufacturing consent. information/media corporate liberal mass media) another (let us here libertarianism) transition catalyzed globalized crumbling world Russia’s mediatized Europe, order. events political, economic, transition, reiterate, (if often “liberal democracy” globalization” As well-known, virulent nationalism perfect storm breakdown. centrality (indeed ontology) racialization slavery, “accumulation dispossession”) “Western civilization”;40 intensified visible. Online first, message boards right-wing websites, algorithmic aggregation, metastasized spilled policy.41 Groups countries made slavery tied commerce black Atlantic” expansion capitalism, building border walls “hostile environments” refugees migrants fleeing disaster.42 “borderization” Global North migrant refugee movement spaces prompting states extend Africa novel technologies surveillant control.43 (Among “drones, heat sensors, smart borders, positioning systems, remote sensing images, biometric passports.”44) Biometric surveillance “society security” transformed “certain uncrossable places certain classes thereby undergo process racialization” “control govern modes arrival.”45 Camps “for foreigners” reappeared “fortress” southern nodes “penitentiary geography” “carceral capitalism.”46 Amid “crisis” movement, months PR slogan “Take Control” extensively A/B tested psychological/information profiling.47 chosen angry “control” taken away them. Or, put way, generated bore little relation historical Britain voluntarily joined trade union formed 1955 try forestall reemergence fascism), replace loss markets); deliberate like replaced spectacle feeling.48 particular vertiginous switch colonizer position colony, transformation paved topsy-turvy 2+2=5 bankers/politicians claim mantle anti-colonial resistance “empire” Europe.49 former center capitalist world) finally got own “independence day.” By summer ties hedge funds anger, division.50 operation,” seeking divide population, drawing reanimated, retooled, turned market revolution” turn “sovereign outlined far.51 On top this, intentionally broke electoral laws funding division democracy.52 campaigning fined, retrospectively, illegal actions; infamous director lied Parliament refused return answer questions; London police force declined pursue criminal investigations sensitivities.”53 Oddly, law-breaking lie enmity mention collusion inter-state unions, swept under carpet compliant institutions, fact decision extraordinary lasting effects economy, polity, territory, diplomacy Britain. democracy.54 Of importance dissolve combat fascism stripping welfare collective organizing) simultaneously “controls” people. plans cooked up “think tanks” shifts establish “free zones” regulations, labor protections, tax commitments get stripped prioritize generation protection capital.55 effort shield wealth reaches core agenda libertarians, generally “coded” modern system escape taxation.56 (One forums globally havens Britain’s rump imperium.)57 alliance shift remnants of) closer fully neoliberal paradigm.”58 prizes any deal” outside held disease illness Health Service. dizzying history, whereby crowning achievement – socialized healthcare, 1945, sacrifices home defeat profit healthcare providers pharmaceutical corporations.59 melt private; and, lies root 2016-19, journalistic hinterland) descended crisis. proved impossible resolve magical thinking ethno-nationalists, dreamed sovereignty right do pleases, international agreements diplomacy. threw toys pram, particularly respect Ireland, control, stretching wave imperialism period, led intractable sovereignty.60 Conservative administration imploded, fall-out 2019 leader Vote Leave group, broken mobilizing reshape geopolitical elected Prime Minister Great imperium havens.61 Only, union, purposively arrived eve emergency Covid-19 required balancing care others. publish act upon pandemic stress test, cancelled parliamentary inquiry biological costs Brexit “independence.”62 island, historic scale devastation exceptional. really beating, insisted along.63 Mostly borne poor, racialized, women, caring professions. side, politicians friends families rich corrupt procurement deals rushed without scrutiny. (Over 37 pounds, “track trace” catastrophically halt virus, though lot owned unclear.)64 “truth twisting” charge openly necropolitical imperative “secure” people.65 Mostly, failing cheered system, much tax-exiles including News. Corp., toxic globe-spanning owning radically Fox News U.S.66 Again, polity democracy. indeed, democracy.67 Meanwhile, sketch our news damaging 2019, gain players “mediatized” Facebook, largest-ever fine history.68 Concluding investigation, Federal Trade Commission fined corporation, whose tagline talks “bringing together,” $5 repeatedly allowing interested influencing lying it, aggressively covering up.69 (Predictably, Information Commissioner brought knife gun fight, £500,000 corporation’s assailing barely dent coffers $70 selling you organizations want you.)70 fines, levied, degrading stock price went up.71 Why? Because “terms service” contract signed history” proprietary biggest pool humans ever assembled.72 “information age,” accelerating computer 1945), expanding micro-electronics miniaturization computers 1970s), networking 1990s) platforms 2000s), oil.”73 fossil fuel, so 1920s onwards “required” maintenance far-flung empire costly bases.74 Plus, alliances murderous despotic regimes, controlling Arabia, Bahrain (where Fifth Fleet housed oil supplies), Israel.75 oil, life porous adjunct intimate recesses selfhood packaged Shoshana Zuboff calls “behavioral futures markets.”76 Generally, generating fostering consumption, continuing function economies newspaper radio television “social” media, useful entrench authoritarian rule. Old ideas privacy “disrupted” rapid enclosure monetization data-commons accumulation dispossession. say “commodity fiction,” colonized society.77 odd, accelerated, sees website college student 2004 “rate” attractiveness women becoming “platform” (on terms “audience” history) insurrections continuance 2021.78 attained level “corporate sovereignty” enabled refuse questions parliaments world.79 Certainly, speeds bewildering 24/7 advanced economies” capitalism”;80 translation existence profitable combined exaltation data, “war all” architecture converting capital.81 worlds penetrated erasure corrupted politics dependent Giorgio Agamben reminds us) private.82 Obviously, observed, “biometric border” extends “into multiple realms life,” creating vast “panoptical” surveillance, control.83 recently earlier twentieth century, unstable balance collapses, face intertwined environmental, orders, metastases.84 grows “capitalism” democracies,” Marx, Arendt, Franz Fanon, C.B. Macpherson taught formations exceed dispossession necessitates violence, racialization, immiseration.85 Arendt destruction reason,” fascists embodied “distinction facts fiction” enmity.86 “exit comes resemble past, generalization terror spawned affective operations, datafication psychometrics, gets operating systems world. outcome increase visible mutates again ethno-nationalism, course unconstrained that, seen, category further, includes China “total awareness” meshing facial recognition technology), repressive theocracies Arabia), settler colonial states.87 Israel, pioneered astroturfing, cyberwar, Palestinian land, laboratory separation, (recent shows) sold Bahrain) populations.88 target manufacture repression violence. Many laboratories liberal, imperial, spreading inner outer wars” colonialism before deform self-rule people.89 simply “academic” one, already apparent words above, Palestinian’s, or, say, students Hong Kong, Uyghur Xinjiang province China, vividly testify. For worth, stand, tyranny orders copy before. Barbara Moyra, better future.