Predicting the unprecedented: forecasting the June 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave
نویسندگان
چکیده
In June 2021, an unprecedented extreme heatwave impacted the Pacific Northwest of North America, resulting in more than 1000 excess deaths and affecting infrastructure wildlife. Predicting such events is key for preparedness early action, beyond temperature, it important to consider biometeorological forecasts, accounting effects environment on human body. The performance ECMWF's (the European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) temperature heat stress (Humidex Universal Thermal Climate Index) forecasts during this explored, highlights that several days advance, event surpassing maximum climatology was predicted with extremely high confidence (100% ensemble members) – successfully predicting unprecedented.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Weather
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1477-8696', '0043-1656']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.4257