Predicting Coral Reef Carbonate Chemistry Through Statistical Modeling: Constraining Nearshore Residence Time Around Guam

Abstract To accurately predict the impacts of ocean acidification on shallow-water ecosystems, we must account for biogeochemical impact local benthic communities, as well connectivity between offshore and onshore water masses. Estimation residence time can help quantify this determine degree to which benthos influence chemistry overlying column. We present estimates nearshore Guam utilize these model effects ecosystem metabolism coral reef carbonate system. Control volume particle tracking approaches were used estimate time. These paired with observed patterns in system around using samples collected by NOAA’s National Coral Reef Monitoring Program. Model performance results suggest that when considering system, it is paramount represent contact benthos. Even coarse significantly increase skill. highest predictive skill models including control derived time, but only those included an interaction composition. This work shows not critically important better variability environments, even hydrodynamic provide useful at management relevant, whole-ecosystem scales.