Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

نویسندگان
چکیده

برای دانلود رایگان متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Topic 4: On the potential value of seasonal climate forecasts for index insurance

The modern era of seasonal climate forecasts began in the late 1980s with the first successful retrospective predictions of the large 1982–83 El Niño/Southern Oscillation event using a dynamical model (Cane et al., 1986). Today, seasonal predictions are issued routinely at many national and international centers including IRI, based on both dynamical and statistical models (see Goddard et al., ...

متن کامل

The Extremely Active 1995 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Environmental Conditions and Verification of Seasonal Forecasts

The 1995 Atlantic hurricane season was a year of near-record hurricane activity with a total of 19 named storms (average is 9.3 for the base period 1950–90) and 11 hurricanes (average is 5.8), which persisted for a total of 121 named storm days (average is 46.6) and 60 hurricane days (average is 23.9), respectively. There were five intense (or major) Saffir–Simpson category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane...

متن کامل

The economic value of volatility forecasts: A conditional approach∗

This paper provides an investigation of the economic value of multivariate volatility forecasting ability using a testing framework in which the quality of competing methods is assessed from a conditional investment perspective. In doing this we are able to provide a novel means by which the benefits of using a particular set of volatility forecasts can be assessed. The results associated with ...

متن کامل

On the Economic Costs of Value at Risk Forecasts

We specify a class of non-linear and non-Gaussian models for which we estimate and forecast the conditional distributions with daily frequency. We use these forecasts to calculate VaR measures for three different equity markets (US, GB and Japan). These forecasts are evaluated on the basis of different statistical performance measures as well as on the basis of their economic costs that go alon...

متن کامل

Ocean Initialization for Seasonal Forecasts

The potential for climate predictability at seasonal time scales resides in information provided by the ocean initial conditions, in particular the upper thermal structure. Currently, several operational centres issue routine seasonal forecasts produced with coupled ocean-atmosphere models, requiring real-time knowledge of the state of the global ocean. Seasonal forecasting needs the calibratio...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Weather, Climate, and Society

سال: 2012

ISSN: 1948-8327,1948-8335

DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-11-00017.1